Cooler and calm weather is in the forecast for this Labor Day weekend. Our temperatures will run within a few degrees of normal for most locations. Expect the generally quiet weather to hold on through the next week, but there will be a chance for a couple of showers later Wednesday into Thursday as another front passes through our region.

Over the next several weeks, the focus of VAstorms.com will remain on the Tropical Atlantic. We expect the remnants of Gaston to reform this weekend and then we are projecting a hurricane to develop during the coming week. Gaston will move into the Caribbean during the coming week and could potentially impact part of the US East Coast the following week (perhaps around or after Tuesday the 14th according to this early look). There is another tropical wave off the coast of Africa that also has potential for development over the next week.

The current radar shows a few thundershowers moving through West VA as a cold front approaches our area. These shouldn’t make it much more toward the east. Our high resolution model is expecting these to dissipate as they move into Virginia this evening. Lightning tracker already shows that most of the lightning has ended and radar is supporting weakening of most of the activity.

That will leave us will a cooler and dry Labor Day Weekend. In fact, it should remain dry across the region through much of next week. A few showers could develop later in the week. Temperatures will also build again throughout next week with low 90s expected to return to parts of the region.

We are watching Earl pass generally northward along the eastern coasts and Outer Banks of North Carolina. Sustained tropical storm force winds are still anticipated across eastern sections of NC and into southeastern sections of VA. The winds and rain are beginning to move into the region and this activity will pick up throughout the rest of tonight. We expect the period of peak winds to arrive after midnight and continue throughout Friday morning, lasting as long as 10-12 hours depending on your location along the coast. The sustained hurricane force winds should not impact the coast of Virginia, but we still anticipate significant trouble potential in Tidewater areas from coastal flooding and sustained tropical storm force winds.

From WWBT-TV 12 – State agencies and private companies are jumping into action, making sure that if Hurricane Earl does cause any damage, they’re ready for it.

Still, when any hurricane approaches, meteorologists like Jeff Mock are crucial.

If I didn’t get excited about this, I wouldn’t be here. I’d be doing something else,” said Mock.

NBC12 has the full story.

Hurricane Earl is located about 550 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. The powerful hurricane is moving north-northwest at 18 mph and should continue to turn to the north throughout tonight. Some fluctuation in the intensity is expected to continue. Earl remains a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 135 mph at present time and with thunderstorms around its center, Earl could strengthen more tonight. This much strengthening at this time was not previously anticipated, but it happens. In 24 hours (Thursday night into Friday morning) we still anticipate weakening. We will also note that it appears this early trend toward the north will help maintain our forecasted track that keeps Hurricane Earl off the coast of the Outer Banks.

We are concerned with another and perhaps even closer call as Hurricane Earl moves past Cape Cod and New England during Friday night. It appears that the potential for hurricane force winds is increasing across parts of New England.

Tropical Storm Gaston should become a hurricane this weekend and perhaps a major hurricane early next week and it moves into the Caribbean. Historical probabilities currently give it a near 25% percent chance of impacting the US (Gulf Coast or East Coast). We will of course continue to provide updates.

That disturbance off the coast of Africa could eventually become Hermine as it moves westward. That one is also worth watching.

Hurricane Earl is a potential threat to eastern sections of North Carolina and Virginia, mostly from tropical storm force winds and coastal flooding. Our track continues to keep Earl offshore and since yesterday has shifted slightly closer to Cape Hatteras but remains consistent with our previous track keeping the eye closer to 100 miles away from the Outer Banks. Earl will continue to shift even more away from the coast as it moves past Tidewater VA. How fast that shift occurs is one of the lower confidence parts of the forecast. We expect that it could be turning away as early as Cape Hatteras. Our worst case would swipe it across the Outer Banks. Earl is down from a Category 4 to a Category 3 storm and based on the current water vapor image showing drier air in the mid levels of the atmosphere we don’t expect the storm to undergo much or any intensification. That puts Hurricane Earl as a borderline Category 2-3 Hurricane as it brushes our coast on late Thursday night into Friday morning.

While a few thunderstorms will be possible with Earl we do not expect a lot of this activity. The bulk of the heavy rain and thunderstorms will stay off to our east with the Outer Banks having the most uncertain forecast and the greater potential for heavier amounts. We also do not anticipate a lot of strong thunderstorms. One of our primary concerns is the strong tropical storm force sustained winds (39-73 mph) along the coast and the hurricane force winds (74+ mph) just offshore and projected to be about 40 miles from Kitty Hawk during the wee hours of Friday morning. Hurricane force gusts are possible onshore during this time. Another significant concern will be the storm surge. Seas are expected to reach as high as 25 feet near the Outer Banks. It is still early and difficult to forecast storm surge but our current probabilities are giving us a forecast of 4 to 6 feet in parts of Tidewater VA and North Carolina.

The impacts of Earl will begin to increase throughout the afternoon on Thursday and into Thursday evening. We are still expecting 6-12 hours of tropical storm force winds over portions of coastal NC and into far southeastern VA. By Friday afternoon, conditions will be improved across much of our region.

The wind threat will diminish greatly over interior sections of our service territory; however, it will be breezy into Central portions of Virginia. We also expect that a few thundershowers could develop over western locations during Friday afternoon and evening as that front approaches from the west, helping to keep Earl away from the US Coastline.

We expect Tropical Storm Fiona to continue to struggle at times and it might not survive more than another couple of days at most. It is being influenced by outflow from Earl. Even if Fiona does continue to exist beyond the weekend, we do not expect the Tropical Storm to impact us. We will continue to monitor Tropical Depression 9 in the Atlantic, but no impacts are expected through at least the first half of next week.

Since yesterday’s updates, we did shift our track more to the west. That was followed by shifts in the NHC track, making our tracks very similar. The forecast could still evolve in future updates, but we do not favor any shift west of an Outer Banks landfall clip and that is our worst case.

Tropical storm force winds are likely as Hurricane Earl makes a brush past the East Coast of North Carolina and Southeast VA during Thursday into Friday. Our current track and intensity projections keep the hurricane force winds (74+ mph) offshore and about 40-50 miles away from the Outer Banks. The chance for hurricane force winds reaching the Outer Banks is near 20%.

Currently a Category 4 Hurricane (131-155 mph), Earl is projected to drop back to a Category 3 (111-130 mph) as it approaches the coast of NC on Thursday. We will note that cooler water, extra shear, and dryer air could help Earl weaken slightly faster than the current forecast. We don’t expect it to be stronger than the current forecast; therefore, the biggest change to our forecast would be a shift in the track that changes our wind projections over land.

Earl will have another close call as it passes near Cape Cod on Friday night into early Saturday morning. It will continue to weaken, but we expect it to pass over the Canadian Maritimes as potentially a Category 1 Hurricane this weekend.

Our primary impact potential is confined to coastal areas of NC and southeastern VA. Our current track and intensity projections will produce tropical storm force winds (39-73 mph) across the Outer Banks and VA Beach. Near tropical storm force winds are expected across other locations throughout eastern sections of NC and VA. The chance for these winds will steeply diminish toward the west.

Timing also remains constant with the morning update. Showers and thunderstorm chances will increase throughout Thursday afternoon across Eastern NC and into southeastern VA. We expect the winds to pick up throughout the afternoon and the conditions will worsen throughout Thursday night. In the coastal areas that are hardest hit we expect tropical storm force winds to last 6-12 hours. Sustained winds of 55-65 mph are likely for coastal areas during that time. Some gusts into the hurricane force range are also likely given the current track.

We currently anticipate the bulk of the heaviest rain, over 3 inches, to stay off the coast; although, areas near and including the Outer Banks into VA Beach could pick up higher amounts depending on how this storm evolves.

With the strong onshore winds from Thursday afternoon into early Friday morning, we are continuing to monitor coastal flooding potential.

In addition to Hurricane Earl we are watching two other areas in the Atlantic. Our next potential impact will be what is currently Tropical Storm Fiona. Based primarily on historical probabilities it still has a similar chance to that of Earl of impacting the US East Coast; however, the model guidance is not all in agreement with that idea. There is also some uncertainty with how Fiona will develop. Over the coming days we will have a better idea about any potential impact from Fiona early next week. Another disturbance in the Atlantic could eventually develop and could progress toward the United States.

Finally it is important to note that afternoon or evening thundershower potential remains in place for Western, Northern and into Central VA during Friday afternoon and evening. As a front approaches from the west in the wake of Earl we will be monitoring potential for any impacts from storms. Present indications are that the threat will remain minimal.